Turning wetter, windier, warmer but stormy period?

Written by on November 25, 2018 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

I’m just heading off to the hills but wanted to share a few thoughts on the return to wetter, windier and somewhat warmer. With the increase in thermal gradient over North America, our trans Atlantic jet is strengthening and as a result we’ll see the return to a more active pattern this week ahead.

As you can see from the below chart we have a nice speed max crossing the ocean and a pair of lows will wind up to the north of this affecting us by mid week.

Credit: wxcharts.eu

Credit: wxcharts.eu

A wet and windy Wednesday ahead.

Credit: wxcharts.eu

Recent weeks has seen a strong ridge which has been flexing and shifting over Europe, thus backing up a lot of the Atlantic low pressure traffic, as this weakens and jet strengthens we resume normal proceedings.

BUT if you look at the jet stream charts you notice there’s not one single belt of strong winds crossing the Atlantic, in other words we don’t have a uniform strong upper westerly flow. This is being disrupted by blocking highs some and it tells me that we’re unlikely to enter a hyper active storm period. Thus while we’ve a westerly QBO, it’s not particularly strong and the models do see further weakening westerlies but in turn supports as easier atmospheric environment for blocking development.

Keeping an eye on the polar vortex. Not supportive of Europe cold but with low solar, modoki Nino and other factors including the MJO, I can see at least potential for change later but I do not want to wishcast. By that I mean there’s no solid evidence that a cold pattern will develop in our part of the world anytime soon based on forecasts but I can see how things could shift later.

As stated, a 2013-14 type winter cannot be ruled out as more cold dumping into NA could make for a stronger mean westerly for winter here, especially if the warming continues solely on the other side of the pole and the vortex holds a cool atmosphere nearer to us which supports a stronger Icelandic low. A weakened vortex and shift in warming could be quite different and that too is on the table.

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