US December 2018 Outlook

Written by on November 24, 2018 in United States of America with 0 Comments

From earliest snow as far south as Galveston, TX to coldest Thanksgiving on record for parts of the Northeast, November 2018 will go down as one of the coldest in US history.

Month so far.

Credit: Michael Ventrice

There are a couple of contributors to such a chilly November. A cold September for much of Canada and building of heights over Alaska led to a cold October for the central US and with further help of a powerful Aleutian high and stretched polar vortex, November has been the coldest of what’s been a cold fall.

Just a few days ahead of the record cold we saw a record snowstorm. In fact New York City’s earliest 6+ inch snowstorm.

The type of strat warming we’ve seen at 10mb in the last 10 days has allowed Siberian air to cross the polar and reach the Northeast.

It looks like the cold pattern pulls back up into Alaska and the north as we commence December. Interestingly the CFSv2 weeklies show that AK trough/Lower 48 ridge holding through December.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

However, there’s increasing model confidence that the strat warming from Siberia to Alaska and northern Canada continues and intensifies, pushing the polar vortex south over eastern North America-Atlantic and Europe. This supports a return of a highly anomalous Alaska ridge and the southward push of polar air.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

My hunch is that we’ll see a 10-15 day pullback and milder pattern but the cold reloads and returns south mid December on through Christmas.

Featured image: Via

Tags: ,

Follow us

Connect with Mark Vogan on social media to get notified about new posts and for the latest weather updates.

Subscribe via RSS Feed Connect on YouTube

Leave a Reply