Weakening Atlantic westerlies shall allow Europe high to retrograde west… Less rain, staying mild for UK

Written by on November 12, 2018 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

The last 10 days or so has seen a battle between Atlantic low pressure and continental high pressure. For the UK, particularly northern and western areas, they’ve succumbed to soggy low pressure but east and southeast parts have gradually been drying out as the strong continental high begins to back westwards.

The next 7 days will see the continued slackening of the trans Atlantic westerlies and in turn the ‘building’ ridge over eastern Europe will be allowed to retrograde westwards eventually positioning itself over southern Scandinavia.

Today

Credit: wxcharts.eu

Friday

Credit: wxcharts.eu

Next Monday

Credit: wxcharts.eu

This shall shut down the Atlantic for a while and with the continuation of a southerly flow, mild remains the story.

Credit: wxcharts.eu

Credit: wxcharts.eu

BUT once the high settles over Scandinavia, we’re likely to turn colder but significantly so? I don’t think so. Not yet anyway!

STRATOSPHERIC STATUS?

At the moment, the polar vortex remains firm, compact and positioned near to the pole with lean towards Greenland over the next week or so. In the long term and big picture, that supports mild. BUT at the very end of the run, there’s strong warming shown to blossom over eastern Asia and push towards Alaska.

Credit: wxcharts.eu

Nov 20th

Credit: wxcharts.eu

Nov 24th

Credit: wxcharts.eu

Credit: wxcharts.eu

That warming from Asia to North America WOULD NOT favour a cold west Europe, the reason? bitter cold would likely pour into North America but essentially this in turn would push the polar vortex within the stratosphere TOWARDS the British Isles and only deepen an Iceland low. This happened in 2013-14.

Please don’t be disheartened if you’re hoping for a good winter. As my forecast states, little winter THIS side of Christmas but I anticipate a different pattern into new year, maybe around Christmas like we had in 2009.

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