There’s been a lot of hype of late about a cold second half to November for the UK. As stated in my recent winter forecast, this unlikely. More or less all parameters point to a firm WEST, SOUTHWEST Atlantic pattern for Northwest Europe and this could remain the case up until Christmas.
Why?
1) While there may be some wobbles and fluctuations in the strength of the polar vortex, there’s no real indication of anything other than strengthening of the PV and it remaining locked within it’s source ove the next few weeks.
Even with a slight displacement off it’s axis, models have it leaning towards Greenland and Atlantic, with warming up the west coast of North America into the Asia side of the Arctic, this does favour a colder North America but essentially this reinforces the Atlantic to Europe pattern with a stronger jet stream.
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
2) We have a firm westerly QBO which reiterates the PV comment above. 3) With the above factors considered and increased thermal gradient over North America, this enhances the trans Atlantic jet stream and reinforce the mild westerlies for us.
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
For the next few weeks anyway, I would expect the continuation of a low pressure pattern with plenty of wet and windy spells and perhaps a few storms thrown in there.
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
The good news for winter weather lovers, I do believe we will see a winter this year thanks to low solar and modoki El Nino. We may have to be a little patient this year but remember 2009, it was mild, wet and windy October, November as well as much of December before the arctic unleashed.
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