US November 2018 Outlook

Written by on October 25, 2018 in Videos with 0 Comments

October started warm but is ending cold in the East and warm in the West. One of the coldest for the Northern Plains while warmest for parts of Florida. Overall, it’s been a month of two distinct halves and known as the month which hosted Hurricane Michael.

Credit: American Red Cross

Here’s how the month has turned out temperature-wise compared to normal.

Credit: Michael Ventrice

As for October’s final week, it shall feature the season’s first Nor’easter with the classic combo of onshore gales, heavy coastal rains and a threat for significant mountain snow from the Virginias to southern New England.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

The GFS ensemble day 1-5.

500mb height anomaly

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

2m temps

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

While October is ending opposite to where it began, November is looking a little less fluctuating. Though modelling sends a surge of cold south in the opening days, it looks to moderate as winds begin to blow from the Pacific across the continent. A mild month looks likely as the polar vortex is strengthening over it’s source region which should result in more zonal, westerly influence.

Though the CFSv2 has a noticable warm bias, I agree with it’s November solution, warm and wet for the East.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

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