Europe November 2018 Outlook

Written by on October 23, 2018 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

This October will be remembered for it’s stormy spells and ups and downs in temperature with record heat (low 20s in northern Scotland, Scandinavia) and in the final week, possibly record cold!¬†October is of course a transition month and it is often turbulent.

It’s been a warm month throughout the continent.

Credit: Michael Ventrice

So, how cold do we end the month? The UK will see a major push of cold but the potentially record cold is likely aimed at central and southwest Europe. Snow isn’t unheard of at the end of the month, remember the heavy snowfall in London at the end of October 2008?

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Significant snow is expected across parts of France and Spain, especially over the Alps, Pyrenees and high plateau of central Spain.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

So, a cold and for some snowy end to October but how’s November looking?

The CFSv2 is almost always biased warm. However, like October I believe it will be changeable and with a southwest flow likely to rule, it will be warmer and wetter than normal for the West including the UK and Ireland.

The polar vortex, which has been weak, hence the early season cold blast, appears to be tightening and strengthening and so I see no reason to dispute the CFSv2 for November with stronger than normal Icelandic trough and SE Europe ridge.

CFSv2 for November

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Remember 2009 and the warm, wet November with record rains. The wettest areas in late autumn can be the coldest that winter. My winter 2018-19 forecast will be released on 1 November.

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