Quiet tropics helped with hot Europe summer, active tropics brought an end to that!

Written by on October 6, 2018 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

We saw a largely undisturbed period of fine, dry, warm anticyclonic weather across many parts of the Boreal North during the height of the summer. Likely driven by the lag of the 2016 Super El Nino, favorable MJO phases and a lack of Atlantic tropical activity.

However, since the tropics came to life in August, combined with a lowering sun angle, we’ve been use to big swings from a zonal to meridional jet stream pattern which has brought big swings from unusual warmth, cool and storminess.

The lack of tropical activity during the peak of summer allowed little disruption to the unusually strong, potentially post ‘El Nino’ positives within the mid latitudes but as the tropics stirred, so the waves of tropical heat lifting north created a ripple and increased the jet stream as the thermal gradient tightened.

September was a warm month but October has started cold.

Sept

Credit: Michael Ventrice

Oct to date

Credit: Michael Ventrice

A big flip comes this week with the aid of Leslie. Note warmth core settles over areas which started Oct coldest.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

In fact according to the CFSv2 for weeks 2 and 3, the warmth holds as this transport of heat northwards helps straighten the high, while Atlantic lows are deflected, skirting Scotland and Scandinavia.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

 

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