‘Atlantic bombardment’ on the cards starting with ‘summer warmth & severe gales’ from Leslie next week

Written by on October 4, 2018 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

As we continue to see the ups and downs of the current pattern, our attention is turning to Hurricane Leslie and the complexities which surround her influence on the UK and the wider West of Europe next week.

A lot can change and we know the models don’t handle tropical interaction well but there are currently two main aspects I’m looking at first for the beginning of next week.

  1. a plume of moisture streaming into the western upslope of Highland Scotland along the divide between high pressure over France and low pressure near Iceland and a connection with the subtropics. This could see flooding and totals in the 2-5 inch range over a 2-4 day stretch.
  2. a surge of unusual warmth and humidity.

The models are also seeing a potentially deeper depression moving over Ireland and the UK from the southwest almost immediately following Leslie and her widespread gales.

Before we see direct impacts from what will be post tropical Leslie, we’ll see significant rains pile into western Scotland then as Leslie approaches from the south, unusually late warmth.

Credit: wxcharts.eu

In just the next 7 days alone, note the 300-400mm of rain expected around Fort William while there’s very little expected around Paris.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Here’s the upper setup.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

.Between now and Oct 20th, check this out. That’s an Atlantic bombardment setting up for Scotland and Norway.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Check out next week, looks like Leslie kicks this off starting with a surge of summer warmth accompanied by severe gales.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Leslie then exits and appears to open the floodgates to one deep low after the next.

System 1 (Leslie)

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

System 2

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

System 3

Credit: Tropical Tidbits


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