Big temperature fight on the way as arctic air drives south, tropical air lifts north!

Written by on October 1, 2018 in United States of America with 0 Comments

It shall be an interesting opening 10 days to October across NA thanks to a strong positive extending from the Gulf of Alaska into the Arctic with downstream trough driving early season arctic air into the US Rockies and Plains while ridging pumps late season heat and humidity into the East. This atmospheric battle will lead to severe weather, flooding rain, heavy snow and potential for blizzard conditions.

CFSv2 week 1

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

With cold air driving south and Pacific lows sliding east, the first big snowfall of the season is ahead for the Rockies and High Plains. In fact the first significant snow takes aim at the Canadian Rockies and Prairies which has already seen snow followed by another heavy snowfall further south. We could see blizzard warning pop up for the western Dakotas as this system winds up.

System 1

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

System 2

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Certainly a snowy first 10 days to October.

This morning’s run looked like this.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Now it’s this! Wow!

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

The CFSv2 week 2 shows a distinctive western trough/eastern ridge pattern with 10-20 below normal vs 10-20 above normal. We could see record cold days and nights if we get snow and arctic air together.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Certainly the GFS sees the big fight and impressive thermal gradient.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

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