European October 2018 Outlook (Inc video)

Written by on September 23, 2018 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

So far, it’s been mixed with a stormy mid month for northwest Europe but it would appear we wave goodbye to September and greet October on a much quieter note.

In just the last 7 days, it’s like we’ve went from late August with 26C to October with 115 mph wind and now early November with the first widespread frost. It dipped as low as -1C at Glasgow Airport.

The month overall has been dominated by the westerlies across Ireland and the UK while high pressure has kept summer going over much of mainland Europe While Northern Ireland was seeing 91 mph winds and strongest on record for Sept, 32C was being reached in Germany.

Sept temp anomaly so far.

Credit: Michael Ventrice

With high pressure likely to remain positioned just west of the UK for the next 7 to 14 days, this points to a relatively calm and ‘weather free’ period, particularly for England and Wales. Cold nights and warm days will become a familiar theme. Unfortunately for Scotland and Northern Ireland as cool mornings, mild afternoons under lot’s of sunshine fade into Tuesday of the upcoming week. Wind and rain returns, riding over top of the high.

However, OVERALL it’s a positive outlook even for Scotland and Northern Ireland.

GFS ensemble for the rest of September into October’s opening week.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

With the high centred to the west, a NNW air flow is dry and clear which will provide large diurnal fluctuation (frosty night/mild day). Interestingly not only the UK but Europe cools significantly as the upper pattern flips.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

What’s October looking like?

So, we know the month opens largely fine and dry but what about week 2, 3 and 4? That’s a good question!

I can see a quiet open but very different end as the eastern Europe trough backs westwards as the month progresses. That’s what happens when you’ve got a warm Norwegian Sea, cold strip between Newfoundland across the Atlantic and surrounding the UK coupled with warming of the central equatorial Pacific (modoki El Nino forming).

The cool definitely sticks out more than the warm in the current SSTA chart.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

These warm/cold anomalies have strong influence on the atmosphere above.

September 2009 saw a mixed September, dry and quiet open to October but increasingly wet second half to October and very wet November which is what I am going for this year.

CFSv2 has the shift as October progresses.

500mb

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Precip

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Let’s watch and see!

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