Category 2 Florence Still Likely To ‘Wipe Out’ Carolina Coastal Communities & Break City & State Rainfall Records

Written by on September 13, 2018 in Tropical, United States of America with 0 Comments

Since my last post on Florence, the hurricane’s core has weakened in intensity and structure has become disorganized, likely due to dry air entrainment.

However, despite it’s core winds (a small central portion of the storm) down from 140 to 110 mph, in a sense ‘the damage may have already been done’ because the system generated a level of power and with it’s expansion in size, some of this power is maintained despite a weakening of sustained wind speed.

We saw this first hand with Katrina in 2005 and Ike in 2008 where Katrina peaked and weakened but it’s force was comparable to a Cat 4 or 5. Category 2 Hurricane Ike was a powerful hurricane in the Gulf the day before landfall and weakened to Cat 2 but the power of Cat 3 and 4 was maintained as it expanded. The results, it essentially wiped out a section of the Texas coast. Katrina went from a top end Cat 5 to Cat 3 but nearly doubled in size and it’s energy was spread over a larger area of water which increased the surge height as did Ike.

Katrina’s winds eased but it’s vast wind field picked up the sea and drove it ashore with tremendous force.

The fear is that Florence is likely to do the same and though down to Category 2 strength on approach to the Carolinas, it continues to expand and before weakening, wave heights within it’s northeast quadrant measured 83ft.

This illustrates the power of Florence and like Katrina, the true impacts of this system could be incredible despite it’s ‘Cat 2’ status.

The two biggest impacts from Florence shall but storm surge which has the potential to wipe out entire communities where the eyewall comes ashore and secondly the prolific rains as the entire system essentially rains itself out over the same area for 2 to 4 even 5 days.


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