Blame A Busy Tropics For The Stronger Jet Stream & Unsettled Northwest Europe!

Written by on September 10, 2018 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Up until the beginning of last week, September was looking largely high pressure dominated but with a sharp increase in global cyclone activity, the prospects shifted quite abruptly.

This pattern shift is in contrast to the remarkably persistent ridging and settled weather of June and July.

The tropical Pacific has been playing a key role in driving quite an active North Atlantic pattern into Northwest Europe by enhancing the thermal gradient over North America which in turn has driven a stronger than normal downstream jet stream across the Atlantic. The ‘wavy’ nature of this jet is causing short to mid term headaches. This theme shall continue this week.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

It’s been the tropical Pacific up until now but the tropical Atlantic shall come into play with the increase in cyclone activity which is expected to keep this active theme going through much of the rest of September here.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

The transfer of heat from low to mid latitudes should keep the trans Atlantic jet stream active, helping enhance the Icelandic low and therefore keeping it cool and often unsettled across Ireland and Scotland but much warmer and more settled over the continent.

Looks like the GFS ensemble has the Icelandic trough weakening some.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Always freshest where the Atlantic fronts sweep in but warmer where the air gets lifted from Africa north ahead of these fronts.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

 

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