Up until now the focus has been across the Pacific and it’s busy 2018 season while the Atlantic has remained quiet as expected. This is typical of warm ENSO years where the tropical east and west Pacific is warm and Atlantic cool.
As you can see from the two below charts, there’s been a frenzy of storms over the far east Pacific.
This is aided significantly by warm waters west of Mexico and cool east of Mexico.
Tropical Tidbits
This SST profile enhances convergence, upward motion and cyclogenesis in the east Pacific.
However, with the aid of a more favourable MJO pulse and warming of the tropical Atlantic, we have a burst of activity blossoming over the Atlantic.
We’ve went from this just days ago…
Despite bursts of thunderstorms rolling off Africa (typical), the tropical Atlantic atmosphere remains remarkably inert (not typical) pic.twitter.com/sMl5GnHiLA
— Greg Postel (@GregPostel) August 26, 2018
to this…
That moment you realized the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane season party is in full swing. #thepatternisfull pic.twitter.com/7rkSn0z8Wq
— Jim Cantore (@JimCantore) September 3, 2018
This shift was seen coming by the models as they showed a kelvin wave propagating west to east…
All tropical eyes are rightly on Lane now. But the CFSv2 shows a #Kelvin wave crossing the Pacific that could nudge the Atlantic awake over Labor Day weekend.
We'll see if it's any more successful than the last one at overcoming the #ElNino background. pic.twitter.com/BlpSOG8oMh
— Carl Schreck ?️ (@carl_schreck) August 23, 2018
This more favorable MJO phase and amplification has led to the huge atmospheric kick in large-scale areas of rising and sinking air masses over Pacific and Atlantic basins.
Tropical Tidbits
Tropical Tidbits
While the atmosphere has become favorable, so too have the waters across the tropical Atlantic in the last few weeks.
We now have Tropical Storms Florence and Gordon with another feature being monitored off Africa.
Gordon poses a threat to the Gulf Coast over the upcoming Labor Day weekend.
Florence is no threat to land currently.
The tropical Atlantic is acting up. And there's no guarantee tropical storm #Florence, or any other candidate that the guidance suggests might be lurking in its footsteps, will be "fish" storms. pic.twitter.com/bc4zrHfMZ8
— Greg Postel (@GregPostel) September 2, 2018
With Gordon, Florence and others systems expected to develop by the models in the next 1-2 weeks, the North America pattern is concerning as an upper ridge over New England means the both Atlantic and Gulf Coasts will remain vulnerable.
Tropical Tidbits
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