UK is firmly back in ‘typical summer’ mode, Ernesto set to bring a soaking Saturday

Written by on August 17, 2018 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Thanks to the Icelandic trough regaining strength and firmly positioned to the NW of Scotland, the Atlantic winds are back in control and that means typical summer weather with lows and associated fronts sweeping through every other day.

The good news is it’s by no means a washout but more changeable with brief ridging and warm surges into between cooler, wetter, windier days. Southeast will be driest and warmest, northwest coolest and wettest as per usual in this run of the mill late summer setup.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

What will be interesting to watch as we head from summer to autumn will be precipitation as the high pressure pattern during the first half of summer could aid in wetter times ahead. Warm water helps enhance rainfall and the cool waters (thanks to cold Feb, March) at the end of spring helped support high pressure and a warm, dry May, June and July but now the waters have flipped from cool to warm as we head into the autumn, rainfall and low pressure strength could be enhanced.

Sea temperature anomaly at the beginning of April

Now

Just because of those warmer waters, it doesn’t mean a wet end to August and autumn is a given but if the Icelandic low remains in it’s current position and strength then rains could be heavier across Ireland and the UK, especially if we get former tropical cyclones which contain more moisture than regular mid latitude lows. That will be the case this upcoming weekend as former subtropical storm Ernesto spreads wind and rain across a central swathe of the UK during Saturday evening.

It’ll be interesting to see how much rain is dropped as this has tropical air embedded and with those warm surrounding waters, it may take advantage of dropping more rain.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Our latest frontal system was seen nicely exiting the British Isles and entering France on satellite yesterday afternoon. This created quite the temperature contrast over a short distance.

That front brought heavy rains Thursday AM to southern and eastern England and an injection of refreshing maritime air which by 3pm held Dublin at 15C, London 17C but south of the front and in southwest winds and sunshine, Paris was sitting at 31C.

Credit: Meteoceil

The CFSv2 for September indicates neutral heights from UK to Iceland and above normal over the continent. This suggests a changeable month.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

It’s got a wet September

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

October is wet and November has a look of 2009. Remember how wet it was and the winter which followed? There appears to be a modoki El Nino developing in the central Pacific and 2009 had the same. More on the autumn in the upcoming September outlook.

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