United States August 2018 Outlook (& summer so far)

Written by on July 23, 2018 in United States of America with 0 Comments

It’s been a summer of heat, storms, floods and even some cool. Isn’t that the case every summer though? Yes indeed it is but we’ve seen some remarkable rain events stretching from Houston to DC. We’ve also observed some of the hottest weather ever recorded in Southwestern California and as of TODAY, Texas!

June was hot and will most likely be the warmest of all three months in coverage and intensity compared to normal.

Credit: Michael Ventrice

July has been warm for some but also cool for others, especially where it’s rained a lot.

Credit: Michael Ventrice

The current heat wave dominating the southern Plains hasn’t made it to the Gulf Coast, why? Because there’s been a lot of rain here.

Recent days has seen temperatures approach all-time records and today has seen Waco, TX exceed their all-time record of 112 with 114 today.

As for the remainder of July, expect the heat to continue on the southern Plains but also build significantly into the Great Basin and West Coast as a trough of unseasonably cool air drops in over the Great Lakes and Lower Midwest. This punch of cool to end the month will increase the rains across the South and up the East Coast as Caribbean air meets Canadian.

 

The below CFSv2 weeklies shows the trough dropping into the Eastern interior while the ridge builds up the West Coast. With the trough axis positioning over the Ohio Valley and not East Coast means a front will hold over or just east of the Appalachians allowing a feed of rich tropical air to run up the east coast keeping it very wet. This is sure to temper than level of heat during August as it did July. Cool, clean air will keep the N Plains, Lakes and Lower Midwest largely high and dry through the early part of the month. Expect hot, humid and stormy along the Gulf Coast and Florida. Record heat is likely to have a big say on August over the West with mere back and forth flexing of an unusually strong upper high.

As for the tropics. In close US development is the most likely threats as the MDR is likely to remain cool, dusty and therefore quiet.

Here are the CFSv2 weeklies for 500mb height anomaly, temp anomaly and precip anomaly through the next 4 to 5 weeks.

500mb height anomaly

week 1

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

week 2

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

week 3

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

week 4

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

2 metre temp anomaly

week 1

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

week 2

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

week 3

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

week 4

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

week 5

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Precip anomaly

week 1

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

week 2

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

week 3

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

week 4

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

FEATURED IMAGE CREDIT: Bill Evans

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