European August 2018 Outlook (& half time score)

Written by on July 23, 2018 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

We are well past the half way point of summer 2018 and I think most of you would agree that it’s been a very warm and very dry summer so far. Especially from Ireland to Finland while cooler and particularly wetter conditions have dominated from Portugal to Balkans.

My half time score?

Some years you get it, others you don’t. My biggest summer forecast bust goes to 2012 when I called for warm and dry and it turned out to be the wettest on record surpassing 2007. My best? 2013 which I correctly went out on a limb and called for the ‘best July since 2006’ and that it turned to be the case.

As I always do, back on May 1 I gave in-depth reasoning as to why I believed this summer would turn out warm and dry across the north and cool and wet across the south.

Credit: Mark Vogan

Interestingly a lot of this summer’s ideas came straight from 2013 with the strikingly similar atmospheric pattern through late winter and spring, the sudden stratospheric warming and cool Atlantic SST profile combined with neutral ENSO.

I guess the one aspect one could argue on is the persistency of this dry, warm pattern. Was it underestimated? Yes I would say so as this year has surpassed all others through the first half of the summer in terms of lack of rain and high temperatures. May was very dry in Scotland, Northern England while wetter in central/southern England and Wales. In June it was bone dry across England and Wales and somewhat wetter in Scotland. Pinpointing the details even 2 weeks never mind 2 months out is impossible but the overall idea I think has been good.

July could well go down as the driest and warmest on record for at least England and Wales given the lack of rain and high heat through the remaining days of the month.

Credit: Mark Vogan

So what about August? If you look back I did call for the potential of something more unsettled but if the June, July feedback of dry ground were to persist then August could follow the first half of summer and in that case 1995 and even 1976 could be threatened. In these dry, warm summers, August can be very tough to call. Remember that waters surrounding the UK are now running well above normal and if the pattern was to only slightly shift, especially with the time of year, lower pressure nearer or over the UK could take full advantage of the very warm waters and increase rainfall significantly.

Looking back at our summer so far

June started dry and finished dry in Scotland and Northern Ireland with about 7-10 days in the middle where it was wetter. For England and Wales there was little wet days hence it was driest on record. Heat was most intense across the North but not exclusively with record breaking heat in Scotland and Northern Ireland during the closing days of June. However 30-32C was recorded in Wales and England too.

Credit: Dan Pothecary @danpothecary

As for July, while Scotland took a turn to more unsettled from July 14 as low pressure returned to the NW, any southeast bound fronts lost a lot of their moisture on their way south hence only in recent days has many parts of the Midlands and South only observed their first rains in 5 to 6 weeks. Sea breeze and heat induced showers and storms have made their presence felt throughout England and Wales over the past week to 10 days but as is often the case, these showers are highly localized and many missed them all together.

Credit: Met Office/NASA

It’s now official. This is the driest first half to a British summer since 1961 surpassing 1976 and the driest summer on record, 1995.

The core of heat has progressed north as July has progressed. The focus being up in Scandinavia with the last 7 days having a mean anomaly of 10C above normal across the far north and north of the Arctic Circle. Amazing to say the least! Note it was significantly below normal over much of central and southern Iberia.

Credit: WxBell

As you can see from the below June temperature anomaly. Arctic Europe observed a cool June as the mean positive height anomaly sat over Scotland.

Credit: Michael Ventrice

So far this July, it’s been over Scandinavia but with enough westward influence on the UK to keep the Atlantic fronts at bay except for Northern Ireland and Scotland.

Credit: Michael Ventrice

With regards to Iberia and across much of Southwest Europe including the Canaries. It’s been a good forecast with cooler, wetter conditions very noticeable this year compared to recent summers.

Here’s some analysis from the Met Office.

Today become’s the hottest of the year so far with 33.3C at Santon Downham, Suffolk, Warmer still to come?

As for the rest of July, expect fronts to often threaten rain, showers and t-storms across Ireland, Northern Ireland and Scotland. Sometimes the front will get forced W and N allowing hot, humid air from the south to lift up pushing highs potentially back into the mid to upper twenties for a time but hot, humid conditions will be persistent across England and Wales, especially the further south and east you are.

After just missing the 30C mark yesterday with a 29.8C, today is into the 30s quite widely over the Southeast and with 33.3C at Santon Downham, Suffolk, today has become the UK’s warmest day so far.

Credit: Met Desk

It’s likely to get even warmer as this week progresses and 30C is likely each and every day this week. 35C or higher not out of the question late week.

For the final week of July the CFSv2 shows the continued ridge dominance over Scandinavia but an extention reaching down into France with lower pressure west of Ireland.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

How about August?

While an Atlantic front may manage to push some fresher air across the UK this weekend, there is strong indication that more heat and sunshine shall open summer’s final month and may hold through the first 15 days at least.

The CFSv2 week 2 (Jul 30 through Aug 6) actually strengthens the Scandinavian high and continues to shield much of the UK from any appreciable wet weather, so more heat and little to no rain looks highly likely. Even weeks 3 and 4, it refuses to show anything new…

7-day mean 500mb height anomaly

Week 2

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Week 3

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

2m temp anomaly

Week 2

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Week 3

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

7-day mean Precip anomaly

Week 2

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Week 3

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

For the month of August overall according to the CFSv2?

500mb height anomaly

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Precip anomaly

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

2m temp anomaly

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

So, while the modelling is pretty firm on holding yet another very warm, very dry August, I believe the pattern will indeed begin to break down during the 3rd or 4th week. I have to say that I cannot say anything or than any fresher, wetter weather which does cross the UK will have any real significance and the hot, dry theme continues to rule. Scotland and Northern Ireland on the other hand will likely see fronts weaken on approach helping keep things fresher and at times wetter here. But even in Scotland and Northern Ireland, August is looking very decent indeed.

Even if the rest of the summer turned out average?

Credit: Met Office

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