United States July 2018 Outlook

Written by on June 23, 2018 in United States of America with 0 Comments

We have seen probably one of the most dramatic spring temperature flips in a lifetime across the US. From one of the coldest April’s and coldest nationwide since 1997 to warmest May on record and June so far is one of the warmest also.

May

Credit: Michael Ventrice

June so far

Credit: Michael Ventrice

No major increase in drought area or intensity, heat tempering rain relief from Houston to DC

Both May and June has seen the wipe out of drought over Florida and the Southeast and significant improvement has been seen from the recent deluge over Houston and the Gulf Coast region. A moisture plume associated with a Caribbean/Gulf disturbance dropped nearly 2 feet of rain last week along the Texas coastal plain.

Credit: weather.com

The Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys too have seen a very wet spring and this is likely to lead to more comfortable July but humidity levels may spoil the lower temperatures.

Latest drought monitor map

Wet soils through the Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio valleys unfortunately won’t stop warmer than normal temperatures from reaching the Northeast.

Drier than normal conditions have developed over much of New England and with strong ridging and heat expected to arrive into the opening week of July, temperatures could be a few degrees higher due to this dry ground.

How’s the end of June beginning of July looking?

Recent heat which pushed Death Valley, CA to 125 degrees is easing as troughiness digs into the Pacific Northwest. This will force the hot dome east through the Plains, Lower/Upper Midwest and Northeast as we depart June and enter July.

Credit: weather.com

So, June ends and July begins on a hot note in the East but showers and storms are likely to erupt widely from Florida up into the Ohio Valley.

The CFSv2 weeklies show the ridge intensify into the Great Lakes and Northeast.

Day 1-7

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

8-14

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

The CFSv2 shows a very warm end to June beginning of July including the July 4th weekend.

Day 1-7

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

8-14

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

As we progress towards mid and late July, there is good model agreement on a westward propagation of the ridge axis and so I expect the core of heat to shift back into the Plains and eventually the West.

Week 3

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

week 4

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

week 5

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Precipitation starts off heaviest over the Lower Midwest where it’s been very wet lately but as the ridge backs west, so the monsoon flow fires up presenting above normal rainfall up through the Four Corners and Great Basin.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

With the core of high pressure positioned over the Northeast/Canadian Maritimes, one should watch the tropics over the next couple of weeks for in-close development and possibly a US threat despite the open tropical Atlantic likely to remain very quiet.

FEATURED IMAGE CREDIT: PHLAirport @PHLAirport

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