Hot July On The Way? UK Is Drying Out Following Dry May in Scotland, Dry June in England

The end game to winter and the overall spring pattern has certainly played well with my thinking. May was a dry month for particularly the northern two thirds of the British Isles.

Credit: Met Office

The dry May led to the UK’s warmest and sunniest May on record.

June is dry too for northern and eastern Scotland, eastern Northern Ireland but particularly so across much of England and Wales. The rains of May for south-central areas have dried out.

Credit: Met Office

Interestingly the warmest anomaly this month is in the western side of the UK, especially western Scotland.

Credit: Met Office

Despite a wetter past 10 days, a dry opening 7-10 and final 7-10 days of the month could push June 2018 within striking distance of the driest or one of the driest on record.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

The dry May in Scotland and dry June in England and Wales has led to a drier than normal soil moisture content across the UK overall. This could be significant as to how warm next week and indeed next month may get.

Via Simon Cardy

GFS ensemble precip anomaly.

1-7 day

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

6-12 day.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

In the worlds of Joe Bastardi of Weatherbell Analytics, ‘where it’s dry you fry’!

The first big heat of 2018 arrives early next week and should hold.

GFS ensemble 2m temp anomaly

1-5 day

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

5-10 day

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

11-15 day

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Given the drying out of the soils and continued higher than normal pressure, I am becoming pretty confident that next week’s heat could be a precursor to what may be the warmest July since 2006, maybe exceeding 2013.

CFSv2 for July.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

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