NW EUROPE: Significant pattern change on the way but is it temporary or something more long term?

Written by on June 8, 2018 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

After months of subpar precip across northern europe, soils have dried out big time thanks to an unusually persistent blocking high over Scandinavia. Would would argue that this is where the heat’s going for the heart of summer.

Credit: Simon Cardy

However, we have the first forecast test on it’s way as the pattern is about to flip with low pressure over higher pressure returning.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

With lower pressure back between Iceland and Scotland, Atlantic moisture inevitably presents a more typical wetter north, drier south.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Therefore cooler Atlantic air returns.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

The test is, how long does this switch last? If it held long enough, it could thwart my long range ideas.

The good thing is that the models show higher pressure returning but rather than being north of the UK it’s more OVER the UK.

The CFSv2 indicates the rebuilding of heights over and then west of the UK which essentially shuts down the Atlantic influence once again.

Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

These 7 to 10 day breaks are expected but providing they aren’t a longer term shift.

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