Very Warm, Humid, Thundery Late May Bank Holiday Weekend But No Record Breaker

Written by on May 25, 2018 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Thanks to a strong and anchored Scandinavian blocking high extending over Scotland much of this month, we can enjoy a rare, warm back to back May bank holiday weekend’s

Remember back to the first weekend of the month and we set two records.

With RAF Northolt recording a peak temperature of 28.7C, this surpasses the 23.6C for the Bank Holiday Monday set in 1999 and the 28.6C for warmest holiday weekend since 1995.

We’re now reaching the end of May and the late May bank holiday weekend. We know it’s going to turn very warm for many but will it, like we saw in early May, be a record breaker? The answer is very unlikely.

High over low means driest in north, chance of storms in south. Warm to very warm for all.

GFS surface for 12z tomorrow.

While the best of the sun and dry conditions will be focused across Northern Ireland and Scotland like it has been most of this week, the thermometer may push 30C somewhere in Southeast England on Monday. Many areas shall push the mid-20s, even up in Scotland and Northern Ireland thanks to strong upper level high pressure. Lower heights further south mean a greater potential for thunderstorms popping up.

However, in order for it to be a record warm ‘late May’ bank holiday the temperature would have to exceed 32.8C set in Regents Park, London just prior to D-Day in 1944.

For Scotland, the Northwest Highlands could push 27C and interestingly Lossiemouth recorded 27.3C this weekend last year but the record even for Scotland? We’d have to top 30C, a figure set at Gordon Castle, Moray back in 1933.

The best place in which a record is possible this weekend is in Northern Ireland. While temperatures may hit 24, maybe 25C, the record of 25.2C set in Strane in 1978 is within reach.

GFS 2m temperature for 12z Monday.

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