Europe June 2018 Outlook (Inc Video)

Written by on May 23, 2018 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

May has played out according to plan with an unsettled first half but much more settled and drier second half. The core of warmth this month has been centred over the very areas which endured the worst cold back in March (Scandinavia) while the long term cooler, wetter trend continues across Iberia.

Over the past 90 days for so, the upper air setup has remained the same with a dominant Scandinavia high and Iberia low. That same pattern in February is very different in May as you well know.

Credit: Michael Ventrice

The remainder of May is pretty much set in stone. High pressure shall rule the remainder of this week, the upcoming bank holiday weekend and much of next week. The greatest chance of showers, thunderstorms or longer spells of rain shall be focused over SW Europe and this energy will drift north over France into the southern UK but Scotland and Northern Ireland looks to see little if any rain.

How about June?

While it’s not going to be hot sun all month long, pretty much all model guidance supports a great June ahead with the continuation of ‘northern’ blocking high pressure with westwards shifts in the centre. This points to at least two main factors, drier and brighter than normal for Northern Europe including much of the UK. Temperature wise, well I firmly lean on the warm side of normal as the soils dry and as the month progresses, that’s if we get the sustained high of course.

Feedback of dry ground and high pressure suggests heat will become a big factor, particularly for N England, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Scandinavia just like we saw in 2010 and 2013. My two main analog years. Lower heights further south mean a greater potential for showers and thunderstorms and I suspect that to be the case over Spain, Portugal, France, Low Countries as well as England and Wales.

A wetter than normal June is probable across many parts of Spain, Portugal, France and possibly extending into England and Wales but drier than normal is expected across Scotland, Northern Ireland, Denmark and most of Scandinavia and where it’s dry, it’ll likely be warmest compared to normal.

The CFSv2 weeklies coincide perfectly with my ideas.

500mb height anomaly 7-day increments.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Precipitation anomaly

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Temperature anomaly

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

FEATURED IMAGE CREDIT: The Forth Bridges @TheForthBridges

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