Europe May 2018 Outlook (Includes Video)

Written by on April 23, 2018 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

It’s been an interesting month and an interesting reversal in fortune. April started cool to downright cold with the 4th seeing several Scottish towns/cities witness their coldest April day including the coldest April day in 80 years for Edinburgh. Heavy snow and tricky travel accompanied the cold air.

March turned out 3rd coldest in the last 30 years and would have been one of the coldest had it not been for long mild spells mid and late month. Eastern and particularly northeast Europe was very cold.

Credit: Michael Ventrice

Prior to the arrival of ‘sudden summer’ barely a week ago, the first half of April was cool across the UK.

Credit: Met Office

The cool was abruptly wiped out by a remarkable surge of April warmth with London and Paris observing their hottest April days since 1949 with Northolt topping 29.1C and Montsouris (Paris) 29.2C. Talk about a sudden flip given the cold February, March and beginning of April. I certainly didn’t see that coming back at the beginning of the month.

Note Iberia was average to below average. London has seen 27C while Madrid still waits.

Temperature anomaly to date.

Credit: Michael Ventrice

To top it all off, the 24.1C recorded at St James Park yesterday marked the warmest London Marathon on record, surpassing 22.7C set back in 1996. In 2007 the record was missed by a mere 0.1C.

The highest reading in the UK yesterday was just down the road at Gravesend, Kent with 25C.

How’s The Rest of April Looking?

Unsettled and seasonal is the quick answer. Thanks to the flattening out of the jet stream and return of low pressure and westerly winds. With the high to the south and low to the north, we’ve lost the warmth and returned to normal proceedings.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

As For May?

Interestingly the CFSv2 suggests building heights which focus further north as the month progresses which would hint at drier than April for the UK and Ireland but potentially average to cooler than average. Interestingly Iberia where it’s been a cooler, wetter than normal year to date, it looks like lower than normal heights through May should keep the cool, wet theme going down here.

Focus of wettest weather compared to normal so far this year has been across south, southwest Europe and a negative temperature and sea surface temp anomaly is the result.

While waters surrounding Iberia and extending south to the Cape Verde are cool, it’s warmer than normal across the central and eastern Med thanks to the persistent warmer than normal over central Europe.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

CFSv2 weeklies for the month ahead.

500mb height anomaly 7-day means

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Precipitation anomaly

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Temperature anomaly

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Exact positioning of the high will determine warmer, cooler or average temps.

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