A ‘North Sea’ Rather Than Continent Cooled Easterly But Warm Southerly Next Week!

It sure felt raw in the easterly breeze as I walked my kids to nursery both at 8am and 1pm today. The current wind direction and pressure pattern is very similar to late February/March but there’s big differences too. The easterly of 35 days ago came straight from Siberia and froze Europe en-route to the UK.

Check out the similarity in pressure pattern between February 27 and April 11.

Credit: Meteoceil

A uniform -10 to -15C air mass from UK extending back to Russia.

Credit: wxcharts.eu


Credit: Meteoceil

This time around we have a wind blowing off a warm, not cold Europe but as the air crosses the North Sea, it’s cooled to the sea surface temperature of just 5-7C once it reaches the UK hence the low cloud, drizzle and chill despite 15-17C in Belgium and Netherlands.

This may surprise you… check out the GFS 850mb temp anomaly for 18z today!

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

It’s WARMER than average despite the LOW LEVEL chill on the coast.

Another good example of how this same setup is VERY different to the end of February as the easterly flow is coming from a warm source which IS reaching the UK in the mid levels but the low levels are being cooled from the North Sea below.

The below current temp chart shows a mild Europe but note the 5-6C waters between the continent and UK. This is typical of this time of year.

Credit: Meteoceil

While only 5-8C up and down the North Sea Coast this afternoon, temperatures are 5-8, locally 10C warmer in the West and Northwest. The hills and mountains not only protect areas further away from the North Sea but the air compresses and warms as it crosses hills and mountains. It’s also often sunny to the lee side.

Credit: Meteoceil

Same High To Bring First Warm Spell Of 2018 Next Week?

What’s also very interesting with this setup is that the very high delivering our ‘North Sea cooled’ easterly wind, shall expand south into France and Iberia next week and with the help of an incoming Atlantic low from SW, our easterlies of this week shall become a southerly or southwesterly next week. Winds blow from a warmer source of the western Med and Iberia will be warmer in general but as the air crosses a much narrower English Channel rather than North Sea, expect temperatures to rise into the low 20s up and down the UK.

See how the 500mb pressure pattern shifts into the weekend.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

FEATURED IMAGE CREDIT: Alistair Colville @Ally_Colville

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