It sure felt raw in the easterly breeze as I walked my kids to nursery both at 8am and 1pm today. The current wind direction and pressure pattern is very similar to late February/March but there’s big differences too. The easterly of 35 days ago came straight from Siberia and froze Europe en-route to the UK.

Check out the similarity in pressure pattern between February 27 and April 11.

A uniform -10 to -15C air mass from UK extending back to Russia.

Today

This time around we have a wind blowing off a warm, not cold Europe but as the air crosses the North Sea, it’s cooled to the sea surface temperature of just 5-7C once it reaches the UK hence the low cloud, drizzle and chill despite 15-17C in Belgium and Netherlands.

High pressure centred over southern Finland, St Petersburg and Estonia today, keeping us in the cool easterly flow. The easterly is also bringing a lot of cloud and drizzle to the east. Sunnier and warmer across Hebrides, west Highlands, Argyll, south Ayrshire and Shetland. pic.twitter.com/G3hUoW8CQ5

— Sean Batty (@SeanBattySTV) April 11, 2018

This may surprise you… check out the GFS 850mb temp anomaly for 18z today!

It’s WARMER than average despite the LOW LEVEL chill on the coast.

Another good example of how this same setup is VERY different to the end of February as the easterly flow is coming from a warm source which IS reaching the UK in the mid levels but the low levels are being cooled from the North Sea below.

I'm afraid it's looking quite miserable in the east this week with a cold North Sea wind and outbreaks of rain. Best place to be is Oban, Mull, Lochaber, Skye, Coll, Tiree & South Ayrshire. pic.twitter.com/w1AnDNShV0

— Sean Batty (@SeanBattySTV) April 9, 2018

The below current temp chart shows a mild Europe but note the 5-6C waters between the continent and UK. This is typical of this time of year.

While only 5-8C up and down the North Sea Coast this afternoon, temperatures are 5-8, locally 10C warmer in the West and Northwest. The hills and mountains not only protect areas further away from the North Sea but the air compresses and warms as it crosses hills and mountains. It’s also often sunny to the lee side.

Same High To Bring First Warm Spell Of 2018 Next Week?

What’s also very interesting with this setup is that the very high delivering our ‘North Sea cooled’ easterly wind, shall expand south into France and Iberia next week and with the help of an incoming Atlantic low from SW, our easterlies of this week shall become a southerly or southwesterly next week. Winds blow from a warmer source of the western Med and Iberia will be warmer in general but as the air crosses a much narrower English Channel rather than North Sea, expect temperatures to rise into the low 20s up and down the UK.

See how the 500mb pressure pattern shifts into the weekend.

Looks like the computer models are moving in the right direction for a big warm up next week. If these come off, I reckon somewhere in northern Scotland could exceed 20C! Think I might book a few days annual leave… 😎🌞 pic.twitter.com/JF4CEvA4cN

— Sean Batty (@SeanBattySTV) April 9, 2018

Could feel very different this time next week… #ScotScorchio might start trending again! 🤞🏼🌴😎 pic.twitter.com/PQHUR20o59

— Sean Batty (@SeanBattySTV) April 11, 2018

FEATURED IMAGE CREDIT: Alistair Colville @Ally_Colville