Europe April 2018 Outlook (& Glance Back At A Remarkable March 2018)

Without a doubt, March 2018 was by far the biggest and most challenging ‘winter’ month across Europe with not one but two record breaking cold spells which hosted crippling, record-breaking snowfall accompanied by bitter winds along with the coldest March days on record. A surge straight from Siberia that shall be long remembered.

Scotland received it’s first Red warning for snow with the snowiest and coldest days for March on record for cities such as Glasgow.

March 2018 temperature anomaly so far.

Michael Ventrice

This month’s anomaly would by far colder if it hadn’t been for a milder period between the 6-15th and the current period with 10-14C across the South and 8-11C in the North. Fyvie Castle, Aberdeenshire reached 15.1C a couple of days ago.

Thank the SSW (sudden stratospheric warming) which occurred back in mid February for one of the deepest negative AO/NAO’s on record which drove the extreme cold waves.

The SSWE forced the deeply negative Arctic Oscillation.

 

The negative North Atlantic Oscillation was said to be 2nd strongest since 1948 with January 2010 being strongest.

The SSWE forcing the -AO/NAO then forced the development of two highly anomalous Scandinavia/Greenland blocking patterns which revered the upper winds and brought the ‘beast from the east’ part 1 the final days of February and opening of March and part 2 during the 16-19th.

weather.com

March 1st for many was the coldest March day on record. Even a new UK record was set with Tredegar, Wales recording a maximum of -4.7C.

Then we saw either the 2nd coldest March days for many or certainly the coldest days for the 2nd half of March.

17th

Credit: Meteoceil

18th

Credit: Simon Cardy

Are we done with the beast from the easts and snowfall? We may not.. is the answer.

Yep, the models are consistently suggesting the development of a 3rd Scandinavian block and easterly flow underneath just in time for the close of March and Easter. So the saying March goes in like a lion out like a lamb may not apply this year.

The latest GFS shows low pressure being forced south over the UK Easter weekend due to building heights to the north. Cold air feeding into the low suggests rain changes over to widespread snow.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Check out this GFS snowfall forecast through the next 10 days.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

There appears to be little change in the overall theme as we go from March to April. The CFSv2 weeklies suggest that overall, the cool shall rule right the way through April and even into May.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

April overall

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

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