US March 2018 Outlook (winter 2017-18 recap)

Written by on February 23, 2018 in United States of America, Winter 2017/18 with 0 Comments

What a winter it’s been across the United States. From Alaska to Florida and from Southern California to Maine, it’s been extreme in all categories.

Firstly a record cold open and close to December 2017 with record snowfall for Erie and the state of Pennsylvania. This was followed by the coldest open to a new year in history for much of the Eastern half with New York and Philadelphia recording their coldest daytime highs since the 1990s.

On the other end of the scale, Alaska recorded it’s warmest January day on record with temperatures climbing to remarkable 66 degrees near Juneau!

Let’s not forget the 3 major Southern snow events within 5 weeks with Florida seeing snow each time.

Credit: NASA

The 3rd snow system was followed by the coldest winter’s night for the Gulf Coast since the late 80s, 90s. 14 degrees in Baton Rouge, LA and 19 degrees in Houston, TX was the coldest at these two sites since December 1989.

Through mid-January, many sites east of the Mississippi had endured their coldest first half to winter in 7 years. For parts of the Northeast it was coldest since 89-90.

Credit: weather.com

As for February, well we’ve just witnessed one of the craziest winter warm spells you’ll ever see with the first ever February 80s for Massachusetts, 70s for Maine.

From the record snowfall in Erie, PA (which set a new single storm record of 65 inches for Pennsylvania) to a record lack of snow in California’s Sierra to record rains in the Midwest to a record 4 months without rain in Amarillo, TX.

It’s amazing how quickly a pattern can flip from one extreme to the other. Last winter saw record snowfall in the Sierra and the eradication of a multi-year drought.

and the wackiness continues with snow and ice just a day after 70s and 2 days after 80s!

Like it’s been the last 7 days, February’s final 5 days ends warm in the East, cold in the West.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

March begins mild but will it stay that way?

Due to a major sudden stratospheric warming event during mid February, there’s been a mammoth reversal in the upper winds throughout the northern hemisphere and as the warming of the stratosphere cools the troposphere below, major blocking takes place over the Arctic region with cold air forced south creating a wild mid latitude pattern.

This likely triggered the record strong Eastern US ridge but as we leave February and enter March, the downstream reaction to the SSW continues. All models show the a trough literally extend from Europe westwards across the Atlantic into the Eastern US beneath a building ridge over Hudson Bay and Greenland. It’s pretty amazing to see typical westerlies reverse and weather from Siberia reaches the US via the Atlantic.

So, all in all the powerful Eastern ridge should begin deflate and lift north to Hudson Bay joining forces to make up a monster upper ridge over the Davis Straits while the trough extends westwards underneath, settling over the Eastern US by the 2nd week of March.

GFS ensemble shows the pattern change.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

The CFSv2 is quicker and pulling the trough westwards into the US and holds it there through at least the first 15 days of the month before a turnaround week 3.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Interestingly the CFSv2 weeklies doesn’t suggest the cold the upper air pattern would suggest. This looks not cold enough from N Plains to Southeast.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

FEATURED IMAGE CREDIT: Ray White @RayWhite2

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