Modelling goes ‘bold with the cold’ for March 2018 drawing comparisons to 1962, 2013

Written by on February 21, 2018 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland, Winter 2017/18 with 0 Comments

I’m trying to avoid hype as the papers and social media do enough of that but now that the SSWE has occurred, we now await the blast from Siberia (due late weekend).

Interestingly all the models are now coming together with a very impressive period of cold weather ahead for both UK and Europe with the next 2-3 weeks likely presenting us with the worst of winter as strong high pressure extends from the UK all the way to northeast Russia.

With this endgame, it’s been a very similar winter to 2012-13 which saw a ‘relatively’ mild Dec-Jan followed by cold Feb and even colder March following a January SSWE.

There’s clear comparisons beginning to show between the current model projections for March 2018 and March 1962 and 2013. This has been highlighted by WeatherBell’s Joe Bastardi and others.

March 1962

March 2013 (coldest since 62 for UK) following our last SSWE before 2018.

Met Office

As well as a blizzard for Kintyre and Dumfries and Galloway, temps dipped to -12.9C during March 2013.

March 2001 was also cold, bright with spells of heavy snowfall. Like 1962 and 2013, winds blew in from Siberia but the greatest significance to this particular March was the fact that Kinbrace, Sutherland recorded a temperature of -21.7C, close to the 1958 record of -22.8C recorded at Logie Coldstone, Aberdeenshire.

Now check out the CFSv2 500mb height anomaly chart for March 2018 below vs 1962 in the reanalysis above.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

CFSv2 monthly for March 2018

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

CFSv2 weeklies are bold with the cold.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

It’s easy to get carried away and yes this looks to be an impressive spell coming up but how much snow falls and how low the temperature will go remains to be seen. Think it’s safe to say no one will be immune from the risk of snow and freezing temps.

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