Europe February 2018 Outlook

Thanks to a positive North Atlantic Oscillation but negative Arctic Oscillation, January like December has been mixed but on the whole near to slightly above average over the southern British Isles and cooler than average for N England, N Ireland and Scotland with the last 7 days being particularly snowy.

Temp anomaly for first 15 days of January according to the MO.

Credit: Met Office

This satellite image shows the extent of snow over Scotland from 2 days ago.

False colour imagery shows the widespread snow cover across Scotland yesterday afternoon. NASA


Met Office

It’s been a rough week for travel on Scotland’s road network with frequent crawling, even stationary traffic due to heavy falling snow and snow covered carriageways. The M8, M80, M90, M9, M74, A9, A85, A82 were often the worst affected.

Mark Vogan

Traffic Scotland

Low levels have seen some impressive snow cover holding several days but up in the mountains, wow!

Unfortunately much of the ‘wintry weather’ has been focused from Manchester northwards.

+NAO/-AO continues to make for an active westerly flow but with arctic air entrainment which has allowed more winter this year compared to last.

We’re firmly pulling out of the cold spell. Bye bye snow cover!

It gets lively on Wednesday!

Credit: BBC Weather

The rest of January on the whole looks milder than of late with low over high driving more southwest wind as seen by the CFSv2 for the next 7 days.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

With more wind, cloud and a relatively mild air mass, warmer than normal temps is a given.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

How’s February looking? Mild open but colder theme returning mid-month?

Given the nature of this winter so far, I don’t believe we break out of this cold season early and believe January into February will pan out similarly to December where we entered a 10 day stretch of mild before winter returned. Remember the period between December 15-25 of mild then flip back to cold Boxing Day. I think we see mild between January 22-February 7 and then we see the cold return.

An intriguing CFSv2 temp anomaly chart for February

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

CFSv2 weeklies see the cold returning mid Feb perhaps lasting 7-10 days before breaking back to mild.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits


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