WEST EUROPE: Winter 2017-18 nearing midway point, driven by +NAO but -AO

As forecasted back on Nov 1, the 2017-18 winter has been rather mixed with a series of relatively short lived cool spells and one significant mild spell between 15-25 December. After a cold first 10-15 days of December (coolest since 2010) the mild which followed helped produce a warmer than normal December for the UK.

The +NAO explains the progressive nature of this winter and mix of cool and mild, the -AO explains the ‘arctic’ sting within these cold spells.

No change as we go forward. We shall continue to have a blocky pattern this week with powerful high pressure over Europe holding back Atlantic weather from progressing east and the weakening and stalling of fronts over the UK or slide underneath the high into SW and S Europe.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

The GFS has the first attempt at a more substantial Atlantic front pushing in and managing to progress comes Sunday into Monday. Behind this, there’s some pretty cool air which may support low level snow and it looks like our flow from the west returns.

Credit: wxcharts.eu

Credit: wxcharts.eu

In the 6-10 day (starting Saturday) we’re back under low pressure rather than stuck in between high and low.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

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