Cold North America / Warm Europe but could this reverse mid January?

For the last 10 days, the core of ‘coldest air compared to normal’ has been focused over North America while Europe and much of the hemisphere has been mild to warm. Sure, it’s not been all that mild here in the UK but overall, we’ve marginally held onto the cool.

Interestingly there’s a trend beginning to show mid month on a large scale pattern switch from cold to mild over North America and with building heights returning to the arctic, Europe may well turn cold. A long way off but it’s worth watching. Whether this is down to an anticipated weakening or displaced polar vortex mid month, I’m not sure.

Does that mean we’ve a cold blast coming to UK? Not necessarily but our chances increase at least.

Well well well, what do ya know. -AO but +NAO. This suggests transient cold spells.

Here’s hoping the NAO can flip too.

A fly in the ointment? MJO!

Recent and latest GFS ensemble 5-day means indicates the flip from cold to warm North America and Arctic and hopefully colder times for us.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

As for next week, with a cold North America, mild Europe with NO North Atlantic/Greenland block, a Scandinavian block and easterly is all but meaningless. Cool yes, frosty at night yes but nothing bitter.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

An important factor to remember, a cold eastern North America and TROUGH over North Atlantic equates to a strong WESTERLY and even though we draw our air in from Europe early next week, the Atlantic always wins out…

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