Following 90mph EIeanor, ‘coldest night of winter’ possible but ‘beast from the east’ unlikely

It’s an active pattern these days with the disruptive passage of Storm Eleanor yesterday and another today, though thankfully not as strong.

Eleanor brought impressive gusts to N Ireland and parts of N England overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.

Credit: George Karbus

Credit: peter byrne @Peter_J_Byrne

Credit Met Office

Easterly develops early next week but beast from east?

After another windy day today, and a messy Friday, winds veer northeast as a building high drifts down over Scotland from Iceland. The biting northeast wind dominates Saturday but as the 1034-1040 high settles over the Highlands, the stage is set for a bitter overnight Saturday into Sunday.

GFS and ARPEGE has a perfect setup of snow cover beneath a cold high pressure core.




ARPEGE model shows colder surface temps.




We’re still several days out so as per usual the details are yet to be determined but most most expand the high into Scandinavia and with low pressure south over Iberia and France, we find ourselves under the influence of a cold easterly.

GFS ensemble 500mb perspective for early Monday.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

A few days ago the ECMWF had a classic ‘beast from the east’ with strong Scotland to Scandinavia blocking high pressure wheel with vertically stacked easterlies underneath transporting pure cold continental air westwards into the UK.



Unfortunately the ECMWF has fallen more in line with the less enthusiastic GFS.

The problem I have about this setup next week is that there’s not a great deal of cold air over Europe and so even with a strong easterly, it’s bite may not be what you’d think hence why I’m not buying the ‘beast from the east’. Cool Europe and build a nice west-east Scandinavian block and I’ll buy it.

Also, the increase thermal gradient extending from North America out over the Atlantic also suggests a strengthening jet and westerly. In saying that, like we witnessed a couple of years ago with the polar vortex outbreak, cold lows crossing the Atlantic can bring snow to the UK.

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