A warm December open it may be but much of Lower 48 looks cold week 2-3

The tremendous swath of warmth spanning an area from California to Great Lakes shall shift eastwards as we close the books on November and begin December.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

November has very much been categorised by a cold north, warm south which La Ninas tend to favour.

Thanks to strong high latitude blocking, a warm US doesn’t typically hold and models do see a dramatic flip between December warm open and likely cold middle.

Note the big flip from widespread well above normal to below normal in the 11-15.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

CFSv2 weeklies show the flip nicely.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Confidence is growing fast due to the strength of the -AO/NAO signal and projected weakening of the polar vortex.

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