W EUROPE: Less Stormy, Cooler Signal Becoming More Apparent For Mid/Late November

After a mild, dry October, November’s opening week has been mixed but lent on the cooler side of normal with frost and hill snow.

The past two mornings have hosted frost at my house but this morning witnessed not only the coldest of autumn this far but also the first significant frost across the southern UK.

First significant snowfall over the Highlands.

The past weekend models have and continue to suggest a slow down in westerlies and more substantial (less transient) build-up of heights over the Atlantic which hints at more northerly, even easterly flow for Western Europe.

Check out the GFS ensemble for Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations…

If the above comes to fruition then it could turn similarly cold to last November which brought significant hill snow and nasty icy conditions through Central Scotland with daytime highs struggling to get above freezing and nights which dipped to -8C in Glasgow, -12C at Braemar.

GFS ensemble 5-day means

Atlantic shall rule this week with low near Iceland keeping N Ireland unsettled but Azores high will help keep it somewhat drier, brighter across S England and Wales…

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

but then change!

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Especially 10-14 day

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Until then, let’s get through this week’s unsettled weather though still not without frosty mornings and more hill snow…

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