TWC: ‘Aug-tober’ to Keep Summerlike Warmth in Parts of the Midwest, East

Written by on October 12, 2017 in Summer 2017, United States of America with 0 Comments

By Brian Donegan

weather.com

At a Glance

  • Well-above-average temperatures will continue to dominate parts of the Midwest and East the next several days.
  • Highs will reach the 70s and 80s in many locations, making it feel more like August than October.
  • Dozens of locations are experiencing a top-five warmest October through this point in the month.
  • Daily low temperatures have tied or broken all-time warm records for October in dozens of locations.

Summerlike warmth is expected to continue in parts of the Midwest, South and East over the next one to two weeks, making many residents of these regions wonder if it’s October or August.

(MORE: October Temperature Outlook)

The weather pattern that has persisted to some extent since mid-September is forecast to remain in place through at least mid-October, possibly into the end of the month. This consists of a large bulge in the jet stream, or upper-level ridge of high pressure, across the eastern U.S., allowing warmth to build and persist.

Meanwhile, a southward dip in the jet stream, or upper-level trough, has been stuck in the West, where the colder air has been locked in. In fact, Winter Storm Aiden brought the first accumulating snow of the season to Denver and other parts of the Front Range early this week.

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This is the setup allowing summerlike warmth to continue in parts of the Midwest, South and East.

Temperatures are expected to remain well above average through at least this weekend in parts of the Midwest and East.

(MORE: Warmth in the East, Snow in the West is Bad News for Leaf Peepers)

The warmth will likely peak from Friday into the weekend, when widespread highs 10 to 20 degrees above average are forecast along and east of the Mississippi River. This translates to temperatures reaching the 80s as far north as the Mason-Dixon Line and the Ohio Valley, with 70s in the lower Great Lakes and Northeast.

Temperatures may return to near-average levels early next week, but another warming trend is possible across the same regions later next week.

(MAPS: 10-Day Forecast Highs/Lows)

The air was downright soupy in the Ohio Valley, mid-Atlantic and Northeast during the Columbus Day weekend; dew points soared into the uncomfortable 70s as the remnants of Hurricane Nate raced northeast Sunday into Monday.

A dew point above 70 degrees is more typical of the South in July or August, and a value above 60 degrees generally feels muggy in the northern states.

A few locations recorded dew points near 80 degrees Monday afternoon, which is uncommon to see even during the heart of summer, let alone in early October.

Hartford, Connecticut (69 degrees), and Worcester, Massachusetts (67 degrees), tied their all-time warmest low temperatures for the month of October on Sunday.

New York City (Central Park) just saw its longest October streaks of 70-degree-plus temperatures and 70-degree-plus dew points, while Washington D.C. tied its longest October streak of 70-degree-plus dew points.

Thanks to this soupy air, over 40 cities have set or tied new October monthly records for the warmest daily low temperature over the past several days from South Florida to Maine. Some of these cities did so on back-to-back days Sunday and Monday.

Locations with at least a 60-year period of record that set or tied their October record warmest daily low temperatures from Oct. 7-9, 2017.
Red dots represent locations with at least a 60-year period of record that tied or set their October record-warmest daily low temperatures from Oct. 7-9, 2017.

(Data: NOAA/NWS)

Among the most notable of these record monthly lows includes:

  • Asheville, North Carolina (71 degrees on Oct. 9) saw its first-ever October day in records dating to 1877 when the temperature failed to drop below 70 degrees.
  • Augusta, Georgia (78 degrees on Oct. 8), not only shattered its record warmest October low, but would’ve also tied its record warmest September low.
  • Charlotte, North Carolina (75 degrees on Oct. 9) also tied its record warmest September low, as well.
  • Poughkeepsie, New York (70 degrees on Oct. 9) saw only its second October day dating to 1893 when the temperature failed to drop below 70 degrees.

Dozens of locations from the Midwest to the East are currently experiencing a top-five warmest October on record through Oct. 9, according to the Southeast Regional Climate Center. This is a sharp contrast to the first nine days of September, when many of these same locations saw temperatures persistently well below average before the pattern flipped.

(MORE: Through September, at Least 37 Locations on Pace for Record Warmth)

Those who are looking forward to the cooler temperatures more typical of fall will have to wait a bit longer in the eastern half of the nation.

The latest 8- to 14-day temperature outlook from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center suggests the above-average warmth will continue through at least the third week of October, with the furthest-above-average temperatures expected in the Great Lakes region.

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