TD 16 forms in western Carib, expected to hit Gulf Coast as hurricane!

Written by on October 5, 2017 in Summer 2017, Tropical, United States of America with 0 Comments

As expected, TD 16 has been spawned from a Central American gyre. This looks to be trouble for not just Central America where rainfall will be prolific but also for the US. Modelling points to a hurricane landfall along the Gulf Coast somewhere between Louisiana and Florida this weekend.


TS warnings up for Central America coast.


Rainfall poses the biggest threat to this highly mountainous terrain. With orographic enhancement, 30″ is very plausible.


A lack of shear and very warm deep waters suggest there’s nothing stopping this from developing further and likely becoming a Category 2 possibly Category 3 hurricane over the central Gulf of Mexico.



High ocean heat content plays an important role in late season development.

Despite interaction with land, the system is expected to become Nate before a possible 2nd landfall on the NE coast of the Yucatan.


Once Nate to be clears Yucatan area, it’s all eyes on Gulf Coast.

Excellent analysis as always from Levi Cowan


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