TD 16 forms in western Carib, expected to hit Gulf Coast as hurricane!

Written by on October 5, 2017 in Summer 2017, Tropical, United States of America with 0 Comments

As expected, TD 16 has been spawned from a Central American gyre. This looks to be trouble for not just Central America where rainfall will be prolific but also for the US. Modelling points to a hurricane landfall along the Gulf Coast somewhere between Louisiana and Florida this weekend.

Credit: weather.com

TS warnings up for Central America coast.

Credit: weather.com

Rainfall poses the biggest threat to this highly mountainous terrain. With orographic enhancement, 30″ is very plausible.

Credit: weather.com

A lack of shear and very warm deep waters suggest there’s nothing stopping this from developing further and likely becoming a Category 2 possibly Category 3 hurricane over the central Gulf of Mexico.

Credit: weather.com

Credit: weather.com

High ocean heat content plays an important role in late season development.

Despite interaction with land, the system is expected to become Nate before a possible 2nd landfall on the NE coast of the Yucatan.

Credit: weather.com

Once Nate to be clears Yucatan area, it’s all eyes on Gulf Coast.

Excellent analysis as always from Levi Cowan

FEATURED IMAGE CREDIT: AMAPO

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