Classic La Nina October on the way for US with BIG late season in-close tropical threat…

Written by on September 29, 2017 in Summer 2017, United States of America with 0 Comments

As east equatorial Pacific waters continue cooling, it looks like we on the brink of a La Nina.

Many medium to long range modelling suggests a warm East/Southeast, cool West/Northwest October which is reflective of a La Nina type pattern and often October can reflect the forthcoming winter pattern too.

GFS ensemble 5-day mean 2 metre temp anomaly shows the warm ESE/cool WNW.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

CFSv2 weeklies are even stronger but suggesting the same solution.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

CFSv2 for October

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

US tropical threat very much remains

As for the tropics, well this upper pattern with Hudson Bay ridge suggests a vulnerable Gulf and Southeast coast through the first half of the month. In-close development is highly possible even within the next 5-10 days.

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