Strong Atlantic jet stream and merge of Maria & Lee could present UK’s 2nd named storm this weekend

Written by on September 26, 2017 in Rest of Europe, Summer 2017, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Combining unusually hot air drifting off North America and arctic air driving down the Davis Straits shall fuel an unusually strong trans-Atlantic jet stream which means the UK shall remain unsettled.

Credit: wxcharts.eu

Credit: wxcharts.eu

Credit: wxcharts.eu

Downstream dynamics are coming together with the strengthening westerlies and a blocking high over Scandinavia, a natural trough dip west of Ireland will result in a tremendous pile-up of air and consequential rapidĀ deepeningĀ of low pressure.

The deepest lows in months will appear on the Atlantic weather charts later this week but thankfully our friend, the Scandinavian high shall largely deflect these deepen autumn lows up towards Iceland and the Faroes with glancing blows for Ireland and UK with frequent spells of wet and windy.

Credit: wxcharts.eu

Through Friday it’s pretty much business as usual. However, Maria and Lee are riding the western flank of the Bermuda high and eventually get picked up rapidly by the jet.

The models show these two tropical energy loaded systems merging with rapid cyclogensis occuring en-route not so much to Iceland but Ireland as the upper air pattern shifts as tropical energy interacts with the mid latitudes.

It appears we may have a substantial wind machine heading our way late this weekend. Potentially becoming this young season’s second named storm for UK and Ireland.

Credit: wxcharts.eu

Credit: wxcharts.eu

Credit: wxcharts.eu

Credit: wxcharts.eu

Credit: wxcharts.eu

Credit: wxcharts.eu

Potential for rapid cyclogenesis?

It’s of course still early and there are a lot of likely shifts ahead. A storm late weekend for Ireland and UK is a possibility and NOT written in stone.

In order for this thing to pack a punch, the residual energy convergence of Maria and Lee must be excellent with the surface convergence beneath the exit region of a jet streak. These ingredients can led to bombing out and a beast of a system.

 

An upper level jet streak. DIV areas are regions of divergence aloft, which will lead to surface convergence and aid cyclogenesis.

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