Combining unusually hot air drifting off North America and arctic air driving down the Davis Straits shall fuel an unusually strong trans-Atlantic jet stream which means the UK shall remain unsettled.
Downstream dynamics are coming together with the strengthening westerlies and a blocking high over Scandinavia, a natural trough dip west of Ireland will result in a tremendous pile-up of air and consequential rapidĀ deepeningĀ of low pressure.
The deepest lows in months will appear on the Atlantic weather charts later this week but thankfully our friend, the Scandinavian high shall largely deflect these deepen autumn lows up towards Iceland and the Faroes with glancing blows for Ireland and UK with frequent spells of wet and windy.
Through Friday it’s pretty much business as usual. However, Maria and Lee are riding the western flank of the Bermuda high and eventually get picked up rapidly by the jet.
Hurricane #Maria and hurricane #Lee to make extratropical transition and head across the Atlantic…
More here –> https://t.co/8y76e4Q5JS pic.twitter.com/uPuph5ByHP— wxcharts (@wxcharts) September 25, 2017
The models show these two tropical energy loaded systems merging with rapid cyclogensis occuring en-route not so much to Iceland but Ireland as the upper air pattern shifts as tropical energy interacts with the mid latitudes.
The GFS again showing remnants of #Maria and #Lee combining with an extra-tropical low and heading towards the British Isles by Sunday: pic.twitter.com/girH2lVTMW
— wxcharts (@wxcharts) September 26, 2017
It appears we may have a substantial wind machine heading our way late this weekend. Potentially becoming this young season’s second named storm for UK and Ireland.
Potential for rapid cyclogenesis?
It’s of course still early and there are a lot of likely shifts ahead. A storm late weekend for Ireland and UK is a possibility and NOT written in stone.
In order for this thing to pack a punch, the residual energy convergence of Maria and Lee must be excellent with the surface convergence beneath the exit region of a jet streak. These ingredients can led to bombing out and a beast of a system.
Possible deep low late next week end. Model agreement. Deepening aided by 130 mph jet streak. Text book right exit over surface low #gales pic.twitter.com/bgnLMxTRGL
— Stephane Gentile (@FrenchScotPilot) September 26, 2017
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