United States October 2017 Outlook

Written by on September 22, 2017 in Summer 2017, United States of America with 0 Comments

September so far has been downright cold over the interior East from lower Mississippi Valley up through the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and Appalachians while warm on the central Plains and especially central Rockies.

Credit: Michael Ventrice

However, as your reading this, it’s the complete opposite with a cold even snowy Western trough and warm Eastern ridge.

This was the US temperature anomaly for yesterday. Quite impressive cold out West with impressive snowfall to go with it.

Credit: Michael Ventrice

The recent upper air turnaround is likely to mean September weighs less extreme than current.

Think I made a good call this time last month that, September won’t be remembered so much for temperature but big hurricane hits on the US.

September’s final days shall end with the continuation of tropical threats with a very conducive setup for pulling cyclones towards the US with the big banana ridge over the Northeast and negative over Southeast.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

How about October?

While September has flipped around to a cold West, mild to warm East, I see the resumption of the typical and persistent Western ridge, eastern trough regime we’ve had for much of the past few months during October.

I expect a sharp downturn in hurricane activity through the second half of the month but first 10 days could well remain lively with Maria worth a close watching as it may approach the East Coast in the days ending September. There is also potential for development nearer US shores rather than off of Africa with a favorable overall pattern.

The CFSv2 agrees with the Northwest ridge core, east, southeast trough setup.

500mb height anomaly

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Precipitation anomaly

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Temperature anomaly

Credit: Tropical Tidbits


William Scherer



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