Europe September Outlook (Brief look back at summer 2017)

Written by on August 23, 2017 in Rest of Europe, Summer 2017, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Following a warm, dry April and May, a more classic British summer followed a hot start to June and admittedly, it turned out to be a disappointing forecast.

In many respects the 90-day June-August period has been dictated by unusually low pressure west of Ireland by a dominant low over the NE Atlantic and high over Italy and Balkans keeping it persistently cool, often wet across the UK and hot and dry for south-central Europe with several waves of heat extending into Poland.

June’s intense and record heat and UK’s hottest day in 41 years was unfortunately a false start to how the rest of summer ’17 would turn out and quickly became a faded memory.

Credit: Michael Ventrice

July was near average for UK but below normal for Scotland while August has turned out to be a very cool month throughout Northwest Europe but very hot from Italy to SW Russia.

July temp anomaly

Credit: Michael Ventrice

August so far

Credit: Michael Ventrice

August looks to end changeable.

How about September?

Current SSTA’s (sea surface temperature anomalies) show a distinct tripole of warm, cool, warm configuration with the strip of cool in between warmer directly related by a active, further south zonal jet stream.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

In all honesty I don’t see much change through at least the first 10 days of September, however an active tropical Atlantic can and often does reshape the mid latitude pattern. So it’s difficult to gage how the entire month will turn out as a cool, wet start could be flipped on it’s head by one big hurricane lifting north.

Here’s how the latest CFSv2 weeklies is looking. A rather similar, benign 1st half to September if you ask me.

500mb height anomaly

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

2m temperature anomaly

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Precipitation anomaly

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

FEATURED IMAGE CREDIT: Rob Dunning @R_G_Dunning

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