W EUROPE: Any sign of change into 2nd half of August from cool, unsettled theme?

Written by on August 12, 2017 in Rest of Europe, Summer 2017, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

It’s been a noticeably disappointing first half to August over Ireland, British Isles and near continent even extending as far south as France and northern Iberia. In stark contrast to a well below normal opening 10 days for UK, N France, it’s been a well above normal open over Italy and the Balkans.

August’s 2m temp anomaly so far.

Any sign of change?

Unfortunately the computer models suggest this highly ocean influence pattern looks set to hold ground.

GFS ensemble through Aug 26

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

CFSv2 weeklies

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

In order for us to get a flip back to something more resembling summer, we probably need to look to the tropics and pretty much hope for a storm or hurricane to take a recurve route over the western Atlantic interacting with our jet and mid latitude pattern in order to disrupt the current setup and recast the atmosphere. Tropical systems tend to inject a tremendous amount of heat into the north atlantic and can pump ridges north, northeast into Western Europe. Until that happens I don’t see much in the way of change. The good news however is that I believe the tropics will liven up and we have a fighting chance at change later in August or Sept. We’ve had many a good Septembers.

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