Ocean-Atmosphere continues to become more favourable as we head into heart of Hurricane Season

Written by on August 4, 2017 in Summer 2017, Tropical, United States of America with 0 Comments

We’re into August and right on schedule the tropics are beginning to bubble with a healthy chain of AEW (African easterly waves) riding a prominent AEJ (African easterly jet) out over a warmer than normal MDR (Main development region) stretching from Africa to Mexico.

There are two waves currently being monitored and are expected to develop.

Credit: weather.com

Pattern and guidance suggest 99L could well be a classic, long tracked system which eventually becomes a hurricane within the next 10 days.

Then we have 90L

Credit: weather.com

Dry air or Sahara dust is beginning to retreat north as you would expect at this time of year along with a reduction in westerly wind shear. An additional 2 players which all point to an increasingly favourable setup and environment for an active  heart to the 2017 hurricane season.

Credit: weather.com

Big reduction in wind shear over the Atlantic and Caribbean this week compared to last.

Credit: Michael Lowry

Credit: Michael Lowry

As of August 2, we’ve had 5 named storms so far. Thanks to record warm water which gave birth to systems in April and May this year.

Credit: weather.com

Modelling shows widespread upward motion over the Atlantic as we head for the heart of the season.

Many LR models have the strongest positives across the Northern US this August and that leaves the US coast open.

Credit: Ben Noll

No surprise that CSU has upped their numbers for the season.


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