Europe August 2017 Outlook (includes video)

There’s no question, July is turning out different to what I had thought with a cooler than normal Scotland and downright colder than normal Scandinavia with core of cold into west-central Russia.

Credit: Michael Ventrice

I’m not surprised about the warm Southern UK extending into France as this was expected but I thought the warmth would have stretched into Scotland. The reason for the cooler-than-normal is thanks to a stronger than expected Iceland low which kept Scotland, Northern Ireland and Northern England changeable but by no means did it seem like a cold or washout month.

At this moment in time, August may well follow July’s changeable ways at least to start but I am hopeful that as we progress towards mid and late month we may see a pattern turn similar to May. Remember May with persistent high pressure promoting warm, sunny days?

Even with low pressure likely opening August, expect further surges of heat from the south ahead of approaching fronts but if and hopefully when higher pressure takes over, some significant late summer heat or heat wave conditions is possible for Spain, France, UK and Low Countries.

CFSv2 for August 2017.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

At a glance, it looks like the Icelandic trough is weaker and Azores high stronger and further north promoting drier, brighter and warmer conditions even up into Scotland and Northern Ireland compared to July.

From a weekly breakdown perspective, it looks like August opens unsettled with low pressure domination but beyond the opening week of August and high pressure gains greater and greater coverage of Western Europe.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

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