Europe July 2017 Outlook

June is turning out to be a bookend month with cool, wet and windy start resembling early autumn rather than early summer, warm to hot middle and now as we close the month, we’re back in the more autumnal pattern.

The most notable pattern shift from May into June was the turn to much wetter conditions with many seeing nearly a month’s worth of rain within a 24 to 48 hour period.

Mid May conditions…

End of May into early June…

Credit: Alan Jenkins‏ @ajjenkins

While the pattern turned on it’s head from the dry of April and May to much wetter late May into June, the same setup which dominated much of spring made a comeback into mid June reverting back to the more blocky, stable pattern thanks to low pressure over the Atlantic and high pressure over France. This directed our air flow from the warmer, more humid south.

Unfortunately the low was a little too close and high centred a little to far away for Northern Ireland and Scotland to avoid, cloudy, breezy and at times wet conditions while the bulk of England and Wales was warm and sunny.

The warmth built throughout Southwest and Northwest Europe over the last 10 days providing either the hottest June weather in decades or on record.

The heat wave started in south-central Spain and Portugal where temperatures soared above above 42C for many days with 45C recorded at the peak in Portugal fuelling the nation’s most deadly wildfire on record. Cordoba Spain hit 44.5C on a couple of occasions.

London Heathrow reached 34.5C making it the UK’s highest June temperature since 1976.

Credit: Simon King

Paris topped out at 36.9C which may have been the French capital’s warmest June day since 1947.

Paris also recorded it’s warmest June night on record.

As a result of all this heat, June 2017 could wind up warmest on record or warmest since 1976 from Iberia to UK.

Credit: Michael Ventrice

Here comes the Atlantic with unseasonably windy Scotland, MUCH cooler England and Wales tomorrow (Saturday).

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

More systems follow…

Monday

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Wednesday

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Thursday

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

So, a cooler, wetter and windier end to June…

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

What has July got in store?

CFSv2 weeklies indicate cool, low pressure dominated open for Northwest Europe but high pressure re-establishes and builds westwards pushing the trough back out over the Atlantic week 2 into 3 of July.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

As the high retrogrades westwards over the continent, the pattern goes from wetter to drier than normal.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Looks we we’ve a similar month ahead to what we’ve witnessed in June with coolish, damp start but return to high pressure and summer weather with plenty of sunny, dry and warm days!

FEATURED IMAGE CREDIT: Paul Crabtree

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