Europe June 2017 Outlook (Includes Video)

While temperature is running slightly above average, the first half of May has followed in April’s dry footsteps with considerably below normal rainfall. Parts of Scotland during the opening 15 days of this month only measured 5% of normal rain and this comes after Edinburgh’s driest April in 75 years with a mere 3mm or 5% of normal falling.

Credit: Met Office

This dry theme if holds and we don’t flip the other way, could present some very warm, sunny weather in June.

May has been a rather distinctive tail of two halves with very dry first half, wetter second half with over a month’s worth of rain falling within just 48 hours in parts of Southern England.

Credit: Met Office

An impressive rainless streak.

Credit: BBC Weather

The shift to wetter was expected but the question was how permanent was this flip. To end the current week, temperatures are expected to lift into the mid twenties in Scotland, Northern Ireland, upper 20s in Wales, low 30s in parts of England thanks to high pressure pushing into the UK from the SW and positioning to the east which allows very warm air to love up from Spain where it could hit 40C.

Credit: BBC Weather

The high temps expected are quite likely in response to the prolonged dry spring and dry ground-atmosphere feedback.

Remember that the recent rains have been able to soak in and so it doesn’t take much for the sun to dry out top soils again, which with high pressure and sunshine, dry ground often helps dry out the air above and the drier the air, the warmer it can get.

A turn to higher pressure and therefore drier conditions looks to take us through the remainder of May and I remain fairly confident that despite seeing some cool, rainy days, the bulk of June with see drier, brighter, warmer conditions for the Northwest of Europe but cooler and wetter for central and east.

The CFSv2 monthly shows above normal pressure, warmer than normal temps but interestingly, wetter than normal conditions too.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

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