I’m not entirely sure how long but I believe since at least April 25th, many places including Glasgow, Edinburgh, Carlisle and possibly Manchester haven’t seen a drop of rain and we’re going to get to probably May 12th before the rainless spell ends Thu-Fri. That’s lengthy period without rain considering how dry April was and the past winter.
Why so dry the past few weeks? Blame a highly amplified omega blocking pattern which essentially shuts down the westerlies. The UK and Northwest Europe’s main water source.
So, are we heading into a major drought this summer? Depends on how much rain the second half of May produces. If rainfall remains sub-par, I believe the dry ground to atmosphere feedback of above normal heights, above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall is likely in June/first half of July. With no development of the El Nino through at least the first half of summer, I don’t see where the big turn to wet is coming from.
So, for gardeners, your time comes Thursday-Friday as low pressure positions west of Ireland while high pressure repositions over the near continent, bringing a southwesterly back with a series of rain baring systems.
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Key to the change is loosing the high and replacing it with a low near or west of Ireland.
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
CFSv2 says the turn to wetter is only slight and doesn’t last.
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Given the ‘months’ of drier than normal, it would take a dramatic flip to soak the soils and I simply don’t see it.
CFSv2 sees coolest and warmest for June right where it’s been wettest/driest over recent weeks.
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