Scotland hosts UK’s wettest and driest in April but what about May or even June?

We know April was dry, in fact 10th driest on record but when looking deeper, it’s interesting to note that the wettest place in the UK was Cluanie Inn, NW Highland with a plentiful 223mm of rainfall. However, you didn’t need to go all the way to the opposite end of the UK to find the driest place. Just 173 miles to the SE via the A9 and April only produced 3mm in Edinburgh.

Credit: Met Office

A large blocking high centred just off Norway extends well beyond UK air space continues to shield us from rain bearing weather systems as we go through May’s opening week.

Credit: WXCHARTS

The current position of the high has our air flow coming in from the east, northeast and so coolest, cloudiest weather is in the east, sunniest and warmest in the west.

Yesterday struggled to a cool, blustery, dull 10C at Scarborough while in the sunny NW Highlands, Achnagart enjoyed 21C and Scotland’s first of the year.

Credit: BBC Weather

Why the fog, cloud and so cool feeling along the North Sea coast?

Temperature on the coast generally reflects the sea temperature when winds blow onshore.

Met Office

Strong heights mean barely a cloud to be seen over Scotland as this visible satellite image from this afternoon shows beautifully. Different story for Southeast England.

Credit: NASA

Current temperatures nicely reflect where sunny and where not.

Credit: Meteoceil

Through the remainder of this week, we remain largely rainfree except for the far southern UK where fronts lined up over France may flirt with southern counties but on the whole we remain locked in a dry, blocked pattern which looks to persist not just this week but through next too.

The ECMWF HIRES model shows a significant strengthening of the blocking high with westward retrogression over to Greenland’s east coast. This would deliver a cool, showier but still largely dry northerly next week.

Credit: WXCHARTS

Credit: WXCHARTS

This setup could deliver a significant mid May cold shot.

Credit: WXCHARTS

Credit: WXCHARTS

Credit: WXCHARTS

A warm to hot June on the way?

If June opens with still dry ground, I believe we’ve some pretty decent and potentially very warm weather on the way…

I recon May will turn out to be drier than normal given the projected dry first 15 days and even with a slightly wetter following 15 days, rainfall would need to be significant through the later half of May to bring us wet soil to open June.

So I believe the CFSv2 June chart with above normal heights and surface temperatures.

FEATURED IMAGE CREDIT: Catriona‏ @caleycat10

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