What Could A Dry Winter & Spring Mean For The Upcoming UK Summer?

My summer 2017 forecast shall be released this Monday but you’ll probably be aware as to my thinking for the upcoming June-August period. I vowed I wouldn’t fall for the same thing as I did back in 2012 when drought turned to deluge in a matter of weeks.

While February saw the heart of the UK wetter than normal, the over 90-day December-February period was driest since 1995-96. December and January was drier than normal almost everywhere.

Winter 2016-17 overall.

Then we entered spring and we continue with that dry theme despite a little more rain in March.

So does this mean a hot, dry summer? No, you need to look further afield. Global!

It was the oncoming El Nino which busted my summer 2012 forecast in a huge way. Despite a very dry back end to the 2011-12 winter and dry, warm March. I failed to look at the warming over the east equatorial Pacific. This turned on a tap in the sky over the UK bringing the UK’s wettest April on record.

As for this time around. We’re now exiting April on a dry note…

Most models suggest a dry May. The prospect of a dry May combined with El Nino NOT coming on proper until later in 2017 and warm waters surrounding UK (thanks to persistent high pressure) and cold pool out in the North Atlantic (where it’s been stormy) all point to a warmer, drier June/July.

Later July into August is open to question because if the El Nino were to kick in earlier, say July, we could have a wet second half to summer.

Watch today’s video.


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