United States May 2017 Outlook

Written by on April 24, 2017 in Spring 2017, United States of America with 0 Comments

Without sounding like a broken record, the large scale US pattern remains largely unchanged but expect a gradual shut down of the Pacific as heights naturally begin building over the Great Basin.

It’s been a warm April except for the Northwest, sound familiar to the previous 2-3 months?

Credit: Michael Ventrice

April shall go out on a stormy and pretty wild note with unseasonably cold air driving down the Plains while the heat surges north up the East Coast ahead of a potent front which could trigger one of the biggest severe outbreaks of the 2017 season thus far.

Big snows over the next 10 days seen by the GFS, look out Denver, Cheyenne, Rapid City, Minneapolis.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Frost and freeze conditions are likely right into Texas and the Mississippi, Tennessee Valleys in the wake of the next 2 systems.

GFS ensemble day 5 and 10 temperature anomalies show it cold.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Unfortunately a major atmospheric war will provide turbulent weather in between with further severe thunderstorms and potential tornados in the South.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

As you can see from the CFSv2 8-14 day, ridging and heat builds over the West while the trough gets forced east but holds back west enough for a warm, humid southerly flow up the East Coast.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

That western ridge then shifts east into the central region while further, albeit weaker systems push into the West Coast.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

As the month progresses, so wave lengths strengthen and troughs weaken with the time of year but there’s still disturbances coming across which suggests the continuation of an up and down pattern and temperature profile.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

As you can see from the CFSv2, the precip anomaly shifts week by week indicative of the continued mobile upper air flow. Major rains for the front running week focused on the Midwest right within the air mass clash zone.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

FEATURED IMAGE CREDIT: Brian Sudol‏ @sudbri

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