European May 2017 Outlook

Written by Mark Vogan on April 24, 2017 in Rest of Europe, Spring 2017, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

The month of April has turned out to be somewhat of a tail of two halves with warm start but cold end with this week presenting one strong final blast of winter.

However, the long term theme has been dry and this plays a bigger role through May because if May was to turn out dry like March and April on the heels of the UK’s driest winter since 1995-96 then a warm, dry first half to summer is on the cards. Over the years I’ve been blogging, I’ve always stated the importance of dry springs if not dry winters and spring and the relationship with dry ground and higher than normal pressure. Wet ground tends to drive a cooler, wetter atmosphere. At this time of year, when looking at the summer ahead, it’s not temperature but precipitation you look closely at.

Mid month stats from the Met Office show how dry April’s been and I don’t see much change as we leave April and enter spring’s final month.

Credit: Met Office

A cool central North Atlantic and warm water surrounding UK combined with dry ground and neutral to borderline weak El Nino, points to overall drier picture.

How’s May looking?

My hunch is that May should continue swaying drier than normal but could turn wetter during the 2nd half of the month. Early May looks cool and dry but as we progress through the month the above normal heights across Northern Europe could deflate allowing lower pressure to return from the Atlantic with warmer surges becoming more apparent.

The CFSv2 weeklies continue with the high pressure theme with Atlantic weather largely deflected away from Ireland, UK, N France, Low Countries through May 20. Wetter conditions look to aim at Iberia and Southern Europe.

CFSv2 weeklies suggest higher pressure and drier conditions as a result.

500mb height anomaly