It seems to happen just about every spring… when you can’t get the pattern to fit during the wintertime, it happens during the spring just when your ready for warmth.
The NAO has been positive in recent weeks. This would technically lead to a wetter UK but it hasn’t. The setup has looked a lot like this.
It’s been an unusual warm, dry winter. According to the Met Office, this has only happened 3 other times since records began back in 1910. Your more likely to see warm and wet during +NAO winters or cold and dry during -NAO winters.
Right on schedule, the weak NAO appears to be leaning negative which despite witnessing 28C in France, 25.5C in England back on Sunday, we could be entering a colder pattern which may bring a colder-than-normal April if modelling proves right.
CFSv2 weeklies show a warm opening 7 days but flip to colder over Iberia, joining the UK, France, Germany up into Scandinavia.
According to the GFS, winter isn’t over, not by a long shot for Highland Scotland and the heart of Europe.
The one striking contrast to this spring is DRY. The CFSv2 sees a dry pattern through the remainder of April into May.
Though still too early to call, a warmer, drier front end to summer (June-July) could be looking more likely given the dry winter and dry April combined with WEAK El Nino developing into the summer. A developing El Nino during spring can flip a pattern from dry to wet suddenly like we saw in 2012 which witnessed a dry February, March but then soaking April, May, June and July.
A lot still to consider. Stay tuned.