It’s not all doom and gloom with the advance Atlantic weather moving back into the UK tomorrow on onwards.
A predominantly flat or westerly flow within a +AO/NAO setup typically means surges of early summer followed by a reluctance for old man winter to hand in the towel. As fronts gather and take aim at particularly western and northern UK Wed/Thu, ridging and warmth builds over Iberia and with the aid of south/southwest winds, that warmth gets pulled north. Strong end of March sunshine added into the mix means we’re likely to see the UK’s first 21C of 2017 this Thursday.
Unfortunately Ireland, N Ireland, N England and Scotland won’t benefit much from this.
Warmer 850s than of late for Iberia shall extend northward into southern Britain thanks to pre frontal southerly flow.
GFS shows ESE surface winds blowing off the Med and warming Iberia/France.
GFS going with a conservative 19C in Norfolk while ARPEGE model sees 22C, albeit a surface reading.
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